TV Study Shows Importance of User Buzz in Social Media

By Song Yao, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

           From the moment the nominations are announced through the red carpet appearances and the gala awards ceremony, the upcoming Oscars will once again be a highly “tweetable” event, raising excitement before and during the broadcast.

           Last year, the Oscars attracted about 34 million viewers, which while down overall from past years, had a bump in younger viewership. But in terms of “tweet” traffic, the numbers are even more impressive: Last year’s best actor win for Leonardo DiCaprio generated more than 440,000 tweets per minute. This is but one example of the link between social media and real-time TV viewership that is gaining more traction and attention.

           Nielsen, the ratings company, for example, has expanded its “Social Content Ratings” for television viewership to include Facebook conversations, as well as Twitter, in acknowledgement of a unique aspect of viewer behavior: While watching TV, nearly 6 percent of smartphone and tablet users browse the Internet, connect with others about programming, and read online discussions about programs—a “social experience” that connects people with “friends, family, and fellow fans.”

           Microblogging on Twitter and Facebook has been shown to generate more impact on other fans and potential viewers. In addition, tweeting while watching a TV show also enhances one’s enjoyment by being able to discuss it with others—whether the play-by-play of Sunday Night Football or the plot of Game of Thrones.

           This activity echoes a recent study by Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, Stanford University, and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology that illustrates how viewer comments, especially before a show airs, can significantly impact ratings.

           Across the broad landscape of media, advertising, and product promotion, social media has quickly gained prominence. Microblogging sites (e.g., Twitter) have become crucial channels through which firms can advertise and promote a variety of products. However, a recent Gallup survey showed that, while companies believe they can use social media to increase brand awareness, people are “highly adept at tuning out brand-related Facebook and Twitter content.”

           So what, exactly, are companies getting for the billions being spent on social advertising? While there is widespread belief that social advertising, like advertising in general, is crucial for reaching consumers, the causal impact on consumer behavior has not been established. One of the challenges has been how to quantify the impact of microblogging (Facebook posts and Twitter tweets), by users, all of which is beyond the control of the producer.

           Our unique field study, sparked by a confluence of events that created a rare “natural experiment,” yielded a clearer picture of how user-generated content impacts product demand.

In our research, we focused on a three-day period during which the Chinese government limited user-generated microblogging on China’s most popular microblogging site, Sina Weibo, by blocking all user comments on tweets. The government’s move was in response to a political scandal following the defection of a prominent official.

           Unrelated to the scandal, we wanted to determine how blocking the comment function on Sina Weibo impacted consumer behavior more broadly—specifically viewership of hundreds of television shows of multiple types and genres across 24 mainland Chinese cities and Hong Kong. During this time, TV companies and other users were able to post original content about their products; however, other users (such as TV viewers) were unable to comment on that content. In other words, the user buzz was silenced—a huge impact, since the number of comments about TV shows on Sina Weibo are normally five times larger the number of original microblog entries.

           Our analysis showed that during the three-day social media block, TV show ratings dropped, on average, by 1.6%. However, among TV shows that advertise heavily on Sina Weibo the impact was even greater—as much as 21%. Measured in terms of standard deviation, disruption of Sina Weibo microblogging resulted in a far greater reduction in viewership than normal fluctuations.

           Moreover, the drop in TV ratings could not be linked to distraction because people were more focused on political events than on their favorite shows. The Sina Weibo comment disruption occurred nearly two months after the scandal first came to light and a few weeks before the next related political news event (arrest of the defector’s superior). Furthermore, analysis of viewership during key moments of the political drama did not uncover any significant drop in television program viewership—only when the Chinese government effectively silenced the viewers’ buzz by blocking comments on Sina Weibo.

           Our research also segmented the impact of user buzz based on the timing of that commentary. We found that user-generated content after a show aired can also lead to more consumption (i.e. viewership), in comparison to traditional advertising through other media channels. This is because many appreciate post-show social interactions with people who also watched the show. Such social interactions can greatly enhance the enjoyment of the viewing experience (just imagine how excited you were while discussing with another Game-of-Thrones fan about last night’s episode).

           For viewers of the Oscars, the expectation that “La-La Land” is highly likely to win “Best Picture”—and may walk away with several other Oscars, given its 14 nominations in total—could very well generate a buzz before, during, and after this much anticipated event. For fans and film-goers, the excitement is further amplified by engaging in micro-blogging “conversations” with others.